Posey's Tips & Tricks
My Technology Predictions for 2026
Here are my five deliberately non-obvious predictions for 2026, from AI agents managing other agents to a possible slowdown in major tech announcements as organizations reassess where real value is emerging.
As a longstanding tradition, I kick off the new calendar by making some technology predictions for the coming year. Even though numerous other tech journalists do the same thing by make their own end of the year predictions, I like to do things just a little bit differently from the others. As such, I follow three basic rules when making my predictions.
The first of these rules is that I do my best to try to avoid making the same predictions as everyone else. If you were to do a Web search on the phrase, "2025 technology predictions," you would probably see a lot of overlap in the predictions that have been made. While I can't 100 percent guarantee that none of my predictions match something that someone else has said (or will say), I do my best to try to be unique.
The second rule is that I try to stay away from making any predictions that are super obvious. As such, you won't see me predicting something like "AI everywhere."
The third rule is that because these predictions are just for fun, I always like to end my list with a longshot prediction. I'm talking about something that is plausible, but yet unlikely to occur. So with that said, let's get on with the predictions.
1. There Will be Agents Managing Other Agents
I recently wrote a column in which I talked about some of the problems associated with Microsoft's idea of users becoming agent bosses. The idea behind this philosophy is that AI enabled agents will be used to handle much of the day to day work, and one of the end user's main responsibilities going forward will be to manage all those agents.
One of the big problems with this idea is that it doesn't scale well. There is a limit to the number of agents that a human can manage. Given that Microsoft and other companies are so focused on agentic AI right now, I am guessing that we are about to experience an over abundance of agents. That being said, it would not surprise me in the least if someone were to create an agent whose job it is to manage other agents.
2. Microsoft Deemphasizes Windows
At one time, Windows was the dominant operating system, with other operating systems such as MacOS and Linux lagging far behind. Given the fact that so many people have adopted other operating systems, my guess is that Microsoft is going to start to deemphasize Windows.
Don't get me wrong… I am not suggesting that Microsoft is going to walk away from Windows or anything like that. It's just that rather than investing big money in new Windows features as has been done in the past, I think that Microsoft is going to focus more on cloud-based services that they can sell to customers regardless of which operating system they are running. We might even start to see Copilot features that begin to feel detached from Windows and more cloud oriented.
3. Azure's Biggest Story Won't be AI
Even though Microsoft is going all in on AI, there will inevitably be some degree of AI fatigue among customers. This may be especially true given that so many businesses have invested in AI, but have not yet seen a return on investment (although that return is likely to happen at some point). That being said, I am expecting to see some degree of pullback.
At the same time, businesses that are continuing to invest heavily in AI will be anxious to control costs. As such, I expect to see Microsoft build better cost controls into Azure. I am also expecting to see Microsoft come up with a pricing strategy that rewards customers for consuming AI resources at a predictable level.
4. Linux Desktop Adoptions Skyrocket
While I am not expecting Linux to become the dominant desktop operating system, I do think that 2026 will see many organizations switching their desktop operating systems to Linux. I think that this will become enough of a trend that Linux will make substantial gains in desktop market share.
There are numerous reasons why I think this will happen. For starters, many have become concerned about Windows privacy. Operating system spying allegations have been further fueled by the introduction of features such as Windows Recall. Users are also becoming increasingly tired of ads being displayed within the OS and Microsoft's relentless pushing of their own cloud services.
Another reason why I expect to see a spike in Linux adoption has to do with the fact that Windows 10 has reached its end of life and many Windows 10 PCs are incapable of running Windows 11. Organizations with adequate, but incompatible hardware will have to choose between running an unsupported OS, replacing their desktop hardware, or adopting a competing operating system (Linux).
One more reason why I am expecting to see increased Linux adoption is that many of the barriers to doing so have been removed. As an example, application compatibility is far less of an issue than it once was because so many applications run in the browser.
5. Wildcard Prediction: 2026 Is a Quiet Year for Tech
My longshot prediction for the coming year is that 2026 is going to be a relatively quiet year for the tech industry, without a lot of huge product announcements or disruptive innovations.
The reason why I am saying this is simple. Although organizations have adopted AI at a record pace, many organizations are not yet realizing productivity gains from that adoption. Companies are going to be reluctant to make major technology investments until they start to see a benefit from the technology that they already have.
At the same time, tech companies were pushing AI out the door as quickly as possible in an effort to capitalize on the AI hype. Now, those companies are going to have no choice but to take a step back and try to improve their products. As such, there will be technological gains in 2026, but I am expecting to see more incremental improvements than flashy headlines.
About the Author
Brien Posey is a 22-time Microsoft MVP with decades of IT experience. As a freelance writer, Posey has written thousands of articles and contributed to several dozen books on a wide variety of IT topics. Prior to going freelance, Posey was a CIO for a national chain of hospitals and health care facilities. He has also served as a network administrator for some of the country's largest insurance companies and for the Department of Defense at Fort Knox. In addition to his continued work in IT, Posey has spent the last several years actively training as a commercial scientist-astronaut candidate in preparation to fly on a mission to study polar mesospheric clouds from space. You can follow his spaceflight training on his Web site.