It's going to be hugely successful!
I don't understand why you say, 'However, Metro is only good for touch -- don't even think about upgrading desktops.' What is wrong with Metro on a desktop? You (and some of your readers) keep saying that, but I have been using it on a desktop and I don't see the problem.
I just received and read your latest Redmond Report newsletter. Overall, I like Windows 8. The one thing that I really do not like is the lack of the Start button on the Desktop interface. As you pointed out in your newsletter, I am not even thinking of upgrading machines here -- in fact, I can't see Windows 8 on anything that doesn't have a touch screen -- and that includes our laptops as well. I believe the omission of the Start button will hinder early sales of Windows 8 on desktop and laptop machines until organizations and individuals begin in earnest to migrate to newer touch-screen equipped machines and significant numbers of mainstream applications are adapted to run under the Metro interface.
I am a technology director for a district of 27,000 students. I have spent about three months using Windows 8, and I felt I became fairly proficient with the OS. However, there is no way I dare to start any kind of upgrade within the next year or maybe even two. The learning curve is too big for teachers (not students), and it would be a nightmare to try and provide training for an OS. I've worked with teachers and Windows since Windows 3.1 (and used DOS before that). I think this is the biggest change since moving from DOS to Windows 3.1.
My vote on Windows 8 is that it will be a winner. When Apple introduced the latest iPad, I figured it was finally time to get one. Still, I held off hoping that there was going to be some compelling reason to have it, not just because everyone else says I should have one.
I am glad I did. I am really looking forward to having a tablet that can also function as a regular PC -- at least if you believe the hype. I hope it lives up. I am definitely holding off on an iPad until I get a look, even if it means being jeered for not keeping up with the times.