Posey's Tips & Tricks
My 2022 Tech Predictions Revisited -- How Did I Do?
Let's see if I was Nostradamus or just way off the mark.
At the end of each year, it has become customary for me to make some technology predictions for the coming year. Maybe it's a bit masochistic, but I also like to revisit my predictions from the previous year to see how well I did.
Before I jump into my predictions from last year, I want to quickly mention that I have three self-imposed rules for the predictions that I make. First, while I do legitimately try to make accurate predictions, the predictions are made purely for fun. I don't take them super seriously, and neither should you. Second, I avoid making any predictions that are super obvious. After all, where is the fun in that? Finally, I always like to make one longshot prediction that seems crazy at the time. So with that said, let's take a look at what I predicted last year.
1. VR / AR Manufacturers Will Begin to Standardize Devices
When I made this prediction, it was based on the idea that some technology companies seemed to be going all in on the metaverse, and that VR headsets would be playing a big role in the metaverse transition. As such, it seemed only logical that certain industry standards would emerge among headset vendors.
So far, this has not happened, at least not in the way that I anticipated. I envisioned VR headsets being equipped with a standard package of sensors, a certain minimum display resolution and a standard refresh rate. While there are those who are working on standards for VR headsets, many of those efforts seem to revolve around the human element. For example, there is an effort underway to set standards for VR headset temperatures so as to avoid eye damage. In spite of such efforts, I think it's safe to say that I missed the mark on this prediction.
2. Teams Morphs into Some Kind of Super Application
The basis for this prediction was that Microsoft at the time seemed to be investing heavily in Teams to the point that Teams was quickly becoming the company's new flagship application. Because there wasn't much more that Microsoft could do to improve Teams' video conferencing capabilities, I anticipated Microsoft changing its focus and working to more tightly integrate other Microsoft 365 applications with Teams. My original prediction mentioned the possibility of users being able to collaborate on Word or Excel documents within Teams.
This prediction definitely came true. Microsoft now allows users to collaborate on files in Teams.
3. Hardware Vendors Focus on Firmware
My third prediction was that because server hardware manufacturers were suffering from massive supply chain disruptions last year, manufacturers would shift their focus from trying to sell customers new servers to selling firmware upgrades that unlock new capabilities.
If I am to be totally honest with you, I hesitated to make this particular prediction because it fell so far outside of the usual way of doing things that I wasn't sure any of the hardware manufacturers would actually take the plunge. As it turns out though, Intel has done just that. The company will allow customers to pay to unlock various hardware features on Intel servers. This will allow Intel to offer fewer SKUs, and will also make it possible for customers to upgrade their servers without purchasing new hardware.
4. Tech Companies Begin Diversifying
My fourth prediction was that some enterprise computing companies would attempt to diversify by offering consumer versions of their products.
This prediction is surprisingly difficult to evaluate. On one hand, I can't think of any enterprise hardware vendors that have suddenly started making consumer-oriented products. On the other hand, I can think of quite a few enterprise software vendors that offer free community editions of their products. What I can't say for sure is whether or not those products predate my prediction.
5. There Will be a Massive Feature Pack for Windows 11
My final prediction for 2022 was that Microsoft would release a massive feature update for Windows 11. My reasoning behind this prediction was that at the time of its release, there weren't a lot of compelling reasons to choose Windows 11 over Windows 10. I assumed that Microsoft would most likely introduce a feature update as a way of driving Windows 11 adoptions.
This prediction came true with the 22H2 update for Windows 11. This update brought us things like app folders in the Start menu, new Start menu layouts, focused sessions, system wide live captions, File Explorer tabs and more.
The Final Score
So for those who are keeping score, I made three accurate predictions, one failed prediction, and one more prediction that I can't fairly evaluate one way or the other. I'll call that one a maybe.
Brien Posey is a 21-time Microsoft MVP with decades of IT experience. As a freelance writer, Posey has written thousands of articles and contributed to several dozen books on a wide variety of IT topics. Prior to going freelance, Posey was a CIO for a national chain of hospitals and health care facilities. He has also served as a network administrator for some of the country's largest insurance companies and for the Department of Defense at Fort Knox. In addition to his continued work in IT, Posey has spent the last several years actively training as a commercial scientist-astronaut candidate in preparation to fly on a mission to study polar mesospheric clouds from space. You can follow his spaceflight training on his Web site.