Posey's Tips & Tricks

My 2023 Tech Predictions Revisited

While my batting average was a bit low, getting anything right in the chaotic year we had feels like a win.

Every year I like to predict what we might expect from the tech industry over the next year. It has also become a tradition for me to revisit my previous year's technology predictions to see how I did, though some have proven more accurate in some years than others. As such, I wanted to take a look back at my 2023 technology predictions to see how many of them came to pass.

1. Microsoft invests heavily in AI enabling the Microsoft Office applications
My first technology prediction for 2023 was that Microsoft would invest heavily in AI enabling its Office applications. At the time that I made that prediction, Microsoft had been dabbling with integrating AI into Office applications through small features like text prediction in Microsoft Word. Microsoft had also just announced Designer, its AI driven graphic design tool.

This prediction ended up being a slam dunk. Microsoft's biggest announcement of the year pertained to Microsoft 365 Copilot; an AI assistant for Office.

2. Microsoft Simplifies its Subscription Plans
At the time that I made this prediction, I said that I wasn't sure if this one was an actual prediction or just wishful thinking. The idea behind that particular prediction was that Microsoft offers a huge variety of Microsoft 365 subscription plans, plus numerous add-on subscriptions. Customers were starting to complain about it being difficult to figure out exactly what was included with which plan, and which subscription they actually needed. I was hoping that Microsoft might restructure its Microsoft 365 subscriptions in an effort to make them easier.

Not only did this not happen, but Microsoft even introduced some new add-on subscriptions for Microsoft 365 -- most notably, Copilot.

3. Cloud Providers Announce Price Reductions
Even a year ago when I wrote my 2023 predictions, I was starting to hear about cloud repatriation. The idea was that the savings that were initially promised as a result of migrating everything to the cloud had never come to fruition, thereby leading some organizations to bring certain workloads back in house. I surmised that cloud providers would have little choice but to reduce their prices in an effort to keep the repatriation trend from gaining momentum.

Now, here we are a year later and cloud repatriation seems to be quite a bit more common than it was a year ago. So how did the cloud providers respond?

It was actually a little bit tougher than you might expect to figure out whether or not this prediction came true. Certainly there are marketing style articles showing big price reductions, but those articles tend to focus on extremely specific circumstances rather than on broad price reductions. If anything, the general consensus seems to be that cloud prices were higher in 2023, not lower.

4. Microsoft Announces Windows 13
I made two longshot predictions for 2023. One of those predictions was that Microsoft would announce Windows 13. My rationale behind this prediction was that Windows 11 has already been around for a few years (and Windows 12 is a non-Microsoft product). Given that Microsoft had abandoned its idea of making Windows 10 the last version of Windows, I figured that it would only be a matter of time before Microsoft introduced a new Windows version.

As it stands today, Microsoft has not announced a successor to Windows 11. Even so, there are rampant rumors that we will see a new Windows desktop OS in 2024. I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft announced a new desktop Windows OS at its 2024 Build conference. Even so, I think it's safe to say that this prediction missed the mark.

5. Microsoft Flight Simulator Paves the Way for the Metaverse
My last longshot prediction was that Microsoft Flight Simulator would play a key role in Microsoft's transition to the metaverse. The thought process behind this prediction was that Microsoft had spent an absolute fortune rendering the entire world in 3D for the Flight Simulator scenery library. All of that scenery consumes petabytes of space in the Microsoft datacenter. That seemed like an awfully big investment for just a game. Therefore, I predicted that Microsoft would come up with some other uses for its Flight Simulator scenery data.

Unfortunately, this prediction is also a bust. Microsoft was at one time working on an industrial metaverse, with part of its scope being flight oriented. However, that project was shut down in October.

How Did I Do?
My 2023 predictions were easily my worst ever. Admittedly, some of my predictions were longshots. Still, I only managed to get one out of four. Let's see if I do better with my 2024 predictions.

About the Author

Brien Posey is a 22-time Microsoft MVP with decades of IT experience. As a freelance writer, Posey has written thousands of articles and contributed to several dozen books on a wide variety of IT topics. Prior to going freelance, Posey was a CIO for a national chain of hospitals and health care facilities. He has also served as a network administrator for some of the country's largest insurance companies and for the Department of Defense at Fort Knox. In addition to his continued work in IT, Posey has spent the last several years actively training as a commercial scientist-astronaut candidate in preparation to fly on a mission to study polar mesospheric clouds from space. You can follow his spaceflight training on his Web site.


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