Barney's Blog

Blog archive

Predicting the Unpredictable

For the second time in less than a month, another high-profile tech trends and analyst firm has released its mobile forecast that points to Windows Phone 7 devices making some serious gain in the market.

While none of the recent speculative analyses (including last week's release of Gartner's mobile forecast report) has any company overtaking the steamrolling Google's Android OS, they do point to Microsoft's latest mobile attempt leapfrogging from the bottom of the pack to claim second place. Gartner actually forecasts a 19.5 percent share in the market by 2015, up from this year's modest 5.6 percent.

Apparently analyst firms are predicting the transfer of the Symbian market share straight to Microsoft, thanks to the recently inked deal between it and Nokia. However, when we first reported the IDC analysis that showed similar numbers, commentators had a field day tearing apart the flawed logic that every single Symbian owner will only jump ship for Microsoft. Not to mention the fact that the Nokia deal won't even start bearing fruit in the form of new devices until sometime late into 2012.

When it was just one report, it was easy to scoff at the predictions. But now that another (somewhat) trusted leader in the tech analysis game comes out with similar claims that many think are outlandish (just check out reader comments on the two news stories for proof on that), is there some information that these firms have that we don't know?

The problem with trying to crystal ball the consumer market is that you don't know what is coming around the bend. By the time 2015 rolls around, Apple may be onto iPhone 7 or 8, Android could have a couple of missteps that lead to consumer distrust and Research In Motion could be sucked into by another company (wow, it's really easy to be a technology trends analyst!). The point is that we don't know what the landscape of the mobile market will be by the end of the year, let alone in four years, and these reports should be taken with a huge grain of salt (especially if using them to beef up your investment portfolio).

What do you think the future holds for the mobile market, and will Microsoft actually find some mobile success? Send your thoughts to Doug at
--By Chris Paoli

Posted by Doug Barney on 04/11/2011 at 1:18 PM


  • Microsoft Warns SameSite Cookie Changes Could Break Some Apps

    IT pros could face Web application issues as early as next month with the implementation of a coming SameSite Web change, which will affect how cookies are used across sites.

  • Populating a SharePoint Document Library by E-Mail, Part 1

    While Microsoft doesn't allow you to build a SharePoint Online document library using e-mail, there is a roundabout way of getting the job done using the tools that are included with Office 365. Brien shows you how.

  • Microsoft Previews New App Reporting and Consent Tools in Azure AD

    Microsoft last week described a few Azure Active Directory improvements for organizations wanting to connect their applications to Microsoft's identity and access service.

  • Free Software Foundation Asks Microsoft To Release Windows 7 Code

    The Free Software Foundation this week announced that it has established a petition demanding that Microsoft release its proprietary Windows 7 code as free software.

comments powered by Disqus

Office 365 Watch

Sign up for our newsletter.

Terms and Privacy Policy consent

I agree to this site's Privacy Policy.