I trust analyst projections about as much as campaign promises. In each case they occasionally come true.
So when IDC released projections showing Windows tablets going nowhere fast, I was skeptical. Estimates of current paltry market share are probably good. It's hard to mess up analyzing what is happening now. This year Microsoft has less than a 3 percent share, a reasonable estimate.
But the high and mighty research house claims that in 2016 that share will be a tad over 10 percent, with iOS with nearly half the market and Android picking up the rest.
The Microsoft numbers are far too low for two reasons: Let's assume the flawed Windows 8 doesn't change. It will do far better than 10 percent because besides being a tablet, it is also a PC that can do actual work. Try and do your 30/60/90s on an iPad!
And three or four years from now Windows 8 won't be Windows 8 -- it will be Windows 9 (unless Microsoft comes up with a dumb annoying new naming scheme yet again).
All the wrinkles that folks like you, the loyal Redmond Report readers have pointed out, will have been largely smoothed over.
Maybe I'll check back in a few years on who was right, IDC or me. What's your guess? Vote at [email protected]
Posted by Doug Barney on 12/13/2012 at 1:19 PM
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