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IDC Downgrades IT Spending Forecast for 2003

Citing the war and continuing economic uncertainty, analyst firm IDC on Thursday downgraded its growth forecast for IT spending in 2003.

"With worldwide GDP growth in steady decline and U.S. corporate profits facing the most severe downturn since the Great Depression, the gradual recovery that was slowly emerging from the accounting scandals and terrorism of the previous 18 months has stalled," IDC said in a statement.

IDC's new forecasts call for worldwide IT spending in 2003 of $852 billion, which is 2.3 percent growth from 2002. Previously, IDC had called for 3.7 percent growth in 2003. Regionally, IDC expects 1.5 percent growth in the United States, 2 percent growth in Europe and a 1.4 percent decline in Japan for 2003.

"The outlook for the next six months continues to be extremely volatile and a double-dip IT recession can't be ruled out in a worst-case scenario. But the fundamental drivers remain solid. Once the fog of war has cleared, there will be a gradual recovery in corporate profits and business confidence, and this will translate into an increase in IT spending," IDC analyst Stephen Minton said.

Minton predicted improved market conditions in every region in 2004, and a $1 trillion global IT market by 2006.

About the Author

Scott Bekker is editor in chief of Redmond Channel Partner magazine.

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