Posey's Tips & Tricks
Will the Metaverse Be Successful?
That answer might lie in examining a tech fad that has come and gone: 3D TVs.
Last week I was having a conversation with someone (you know who you are) who asked me whether or not I thought that the metaverse would ultimately be successful. After all, tech companies such as Facebook and Microsoft seem to be going all in on the metaverse, with Facebook even going so far as to change their company name to Meta.
Although I have given quite a bit of thought as to whether or not people would accept the metaverse for various use cases (such as online shopping), I hadn’t really stopped to think about whether or not the metaverse as a whole would be successful. Even so, it’s a question that needs to be explored. If successful, the metaverse will forever change computing and online collaboration.
But what if the metaverse doesn’t succeed and ultimately fails to gain mainstream acceptance? If that happens, we will probably see the software companies regroup and try to reintroduce the metaverse in a few years. If the metaverse still fails to catch on, it will likely go the way of Microsoft Bob and the software companies will move on to something else.
This isn’t to say that the various technology companies will give up on the metaverse easily. Companies like Microsoft and Facebook have already invested huge amounts of money and won’t be anxious to abandon that investment. As such, I think that they will do everything that they can to lure consumers toward the metaverse. Of course it is ultimately the customer who has the final say as to whether or not the metaverse will be successful.
But let me get back to my original question… Will the metaverse be successful? Will it gain mainstream acceptance?
Personally, I want the metaverse to succeed. I think that the metaverse offers possibilities and opportunities that go far beyond anything that anyone is talking about right now. I might share some of those thoughts in a future blog post. Unfortunately, “do I want it to succeed” and “do I think it will succeed” are two different questions. Sadly, I am not overly optimistic about the metaverse’s future, but I really hope that I am wrong about this one.
The reason why I am skeptical of the idea that the metaverse will gain mainstream acceptance is that there is a historical precedent that predicts the metaverse’s failure.
Consider for a moment, the history of 3D movies. 3D movies have literally been around for a hundred years. The first 3D movie was shown in 1922! In spite of the fact that 3D movies have existed for so long, they have mostly been regarded as a novelty.
So with that in mind, consider the history of 3D TV. 3D TVs were first introduced in 1935, but never really caught on. They were reintroduced a few times over the years but failed to gain mainstream acceptance. In 2010 several manufacturers introduced a new generation of 3D TVs at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. This time around, the manufacturers did everything that they possibly could to ensure the success of 3D TV. The studios began producing lots of 3D content and electronics manufacturers also began creating ancillary devices such as 3D camcorders. By 2016 however, the industry had all but given up on 3D TV.
So why did 3D TV fail? It really depends on who you ask. Some people claim that the demise of 3D TV can be attributed to the cost of the devices and the glasses. Others claim that the devices were unappealing because of their narrow viewing angle and less than vibrant colors. Still others believe that the medium’s failure was because the industry tried to convert 2D content into 3D, and the converted content didn’t look very good.
Any or all of these reasons might explain why 3D TVs didn’t catch on, but I think that there is another, much simpler reason. Remember, 3D content has been around for 100 years – far longer than the latest crop of 3D TVs – and yet it has never become a mainstream standard. It could be that people just don’t want to have to put on 3D glasses every time they want to watch something on TV. If this is truly the case, then it doesn’t bode well for the metaverse, which requires the use of a digital headset.
If the metaverse is to be successful, then it will need to prove itself to be more than just a one trick pony. Having a spatial environment is great, but the technology companies are going to need to convince people that there are significant advantages to embracing the metaverse and that the metaverse’s 3D environment is more than just a novelty.
About the Author
Brien Posey is a 22-time Microsoft MVP with decades of IT experience. As a freelance writer, Posey has written thousands of articles and contributed to several dozen books on a wide variety of IT topics. Prior to going freelance, Posey was a CIO for a national chain of hospitals and health care facilities. He has also served as a network administrator for some of the country's largest insurance companies and for the Department of Defense at Fort Knox. In addition to his continued work in IT, Posey has spent the last several years actively training as a commercial scientist-astronaut candidate in preparation to fly on a mission to study polar mesospheric clouds from space. You can follow his spaceflight training on his Web site.