Posey's Tips & Tricks

2018 Microsoft Predictions Revisited

From guessing the fate of Windows 10 S to predicting Microsoft's next big move with Linux, Brien's predictions from a year ago were on the mark more than they weren't.

Over the years, it has become a tradition for me to use one of my last posts of the year to make tech predictions for the new year. At the same time, I also like to write a companion piece that revisits the predictions that I made for the previous year.

It's always interesting to see how I did. Some of my tech predictions have been spot-on, while others have been very short-sighted. So how did I do with my tech predictions for 2018? Let's find out.

1. Windows 10 S Gets Discontinued
My first prediction last year was that Windows 10 S would be discontinued. For those who are not familiar with Windows 10 S, it was kind of like Windows RT 2.0 -- a Windows 10 release that was extremely limited in its capabilities.

I will give myself half-credit for this prediction. Microsoft Surface devices are no longer shipping with Window 10 S, but Microsoft did not completely do away with Windows 10 S, either.

Instead, Windows 10 S became a mode that could be enabled or disabled within Windows 10. In other words, Windows 10 S does still exist, but it is not an entirely separate OS.

2. An Increased Emphasis on Security and Compliance
This one is really hard to quantify, because Microsoft works on security every year. In 2018, Microsoft did make a lot of progress with its malware-scanning engine. And, of course, who can forget about Project VAST?

Although it's kind of a freebie, I will go ahead and count this one as an accurate prediction.

3. Hybrid Hyper-V Gets Easier
The basis of this prediction was that although Hyper-V supports nested virtual machines (VMs), the process of deploying a nested Hyper-V environment was a bit cumbersome. I predicted that Microsoft would end up doing something to make nested Hyper-V easier to set up.

I'm a bit conflicted as to how to score this prediction. On one hand, Microsoft has not done anything (at least nothing that I am aware of) to make it easier to set up nested Hyper-V. On the other hand, someone else has done it for them.

A blogger named Dan Patrick came up with a way to deploy nested VMs in Azure with one click. I will give myself half-credit for this prediction.

4. Mixed Reality for Xbox
My fourth prediction was that Microsoft would bring mixed reality support to Xbox One. At the time that I made the prediction, Microsoft was investing heavily in mixed reality.

Several months ago, however, Microsoft announced that it had decided to discontinue its plans for mixed reality support on Xbox. Although I came close to getting this prediction right, I think that I have to count it as a fail.

5. Simplified Cloud Subscriptions
My fifth prediction was that Microsoft would do something to make its cloud subscription model a bit simpler. My thinking behind this prediction was that it is cumbersome to manage separate subscriptions for Azure, Office 365, Intune, et cetera. I wondered if Microsoft might create a single "Microsoft Cloud" subscription that provided access to all of these services through a single account.

Although Microsoft didn't do exactly that, it has modified the Office 365 Admin Center to make it possible to link subscriptions to other Office 365 services. I will count this prediction as being half-right.

6. My Outlandish Prediction
Just for fun, I usually wrap up my tech predictions with something that is completely outlandish, but not completely outside the realm of possibility. I made two such predictions last year.

The first of those predictions was that Microsoft would introduce its own Linux build in 2018. Believe it or not, this prediction came true. This past April, Microsoft announced its own Linux kernel, which it calls Azure Sphere.

My second outlandish prediction was that Microsoft would announce flat-rate pricing for Azure. Not surprisingly, this one did not come true.

How Did I Do?
For those of you who are keeping score, I guessed correctly on two predictions, was partially correct on three predictions and wrong on two predictions.

As for my overall track record, 2018 wasn't my best year for accurately predicting tech announcements, but it wasn't my worst year either.

About the Author

Brien Posey is a 22-time Microsoft MVP with decades of IT experience. As a freelance writer, Posey has written thousands of articles and contributed to several dozen books on a wide variety of IT topics. Prior to going freelance, Posey was a CIO for a national chain of hospitals and health care facilities. He has also served as a network administrator for some of the country's largest insurance companies and for the Department of Defense at Fort Knox. In addition to his continued work in IT, Posey has spent the last several years actively training as a commercial scientist-astronaut candidate in preparation to fly on a mission to study polar mesospheric clouds from space. You can follow his spaceflight training on his Web site.


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