Posey's Tips & Tricks

My Tech Predictions for 2015 Revisited

Brien bats .500 on his Microsoft predictions for the year.

One of my traditions for my column is that at the end of each year, I like to make tech predictions for the following year. I also like to go back and look at my predictions for the previous year just for fun to see how I did. So with that said, here are the predictions that I made for 2015.

Windows 10 Is a Huge Success
Well, as far as this prediction goes, my rate of accuracy really depends on who you ask. Some have proclaimed Windows 10 to be an unparalleled success, while others have deemed Windows 10 to be a flop.

While writing this post, I couldn't find the current license count for Windows 10. However, I did find a Fortune article from August  that stated that 75 million devices were already running Windows 10. While that might not sound like a lot, the article was written roughly a month after the Windows 10 release. According to the article, it took six months for Windows 8 to be installed on 100 million devices. That being the case, I would have to classify Windows 10 as a success. I will count that as a good prediction.

Virtual Desktops for Consumers
A second prediction was that Microsoft would end up releasing Windows 10 as a virtual desktop subscription for consumers. So far this has not happened. I still think that there is a possibility that Microsoft could end up doing this in the future, but I have not heard any whisperings that would lead me to believe that Microsoft is planning on doing this any time soon. Clearly, this prediction did not come true.

Microsoft Completely Embraces Cross Platform
My third prediction was that Microsoft would completely embrace cross platform. I definitely nailed this prediction. Hyper-V now supports Linux virtual machines to nearly the same degree that it supports Windows virtual machines. Microsoft Band 2 works with iOS and Android, and Microsoft offers Office on a variety of platforms. Never mind that Intune allows administrators to build apps cross platform in the enterprise app stores.

Microsoft Reverts to Older Conference Model
I thought for sure that Microsoft would abandon the Ignite conference in favor of a more granular conference model. This one hasn't happened yet, but it could still happen. For now though, I have to count this as a bad prediction.

There was one interesting thing to come out of Ignite. Back in the days of TechEd, Microsoft would usually announce the location of the following year's TechEd conference. Microsoft upheld this tradition at Ignite indicating that the conference would be back in Chicago in 2016. I also heard some unconfirmed rumors that Microsoft had signed a three-year contract with the city of Chicago that would require them to have the Ignite conference in Chicago for three years in a row. Surprisingly, Microsoft moved the Ignite conference to Atlanta.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not complaining about the decision. Atlanta is a lot closer to home for me, so I was happy about the decision. Still, it was unprecedented for Microsoft to change the conference venue after announcing that Ignite 2016 would be in Chicago.

Consumer Windows Devices Get an Automatic Update to Windows 10
When I made this prediction, I basically said that I didn't think that Microsoft would give away free Windows 10 licenses, but that they would provide free Windows 10 upgrades for consumer devices such as Xbox One and Windows Phone. I will give myself half a point for this one. As we all know, Microsoft did make Windows 10 freely available to those who are running specific editions of Windows 7 and Windows 8.1, so clearly I missed the mark on that part of the prediction. Even so, I was on track when I predicted that Microsoft would provide a free Windows 10 upgrade path for Xbox One and Windows Phone.

So for those of you who are keeping score, that's 2.5 good predictions and 2.5 bad predictions. Let's see if I can do better with my 2016 predictions.

About the Author

Brien Posey is a 22-time Microsoft MVP with decades of IT experience. As a freelance writer, Posey has written thousands of articles and contributed to several dozen books on a wide variety of IT topics. Prior to going freelance, Posey was a CIO for a national chain of hospitals and health care facilities. He has also served as a network administrator for some of the country's largest insurance companies and for the Department of Defense at Fort Knox. In addition to his continued work in IT, Posey has spent the last several years actively training as a commercial scientist-astronaut candidate in preparation to fly on a mission to study polar mesospheric clouds from space. You can follow his spaceflight training on his Web site.


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