Now we're seeing how Google could be a serious threat to Microsoft in the enterprise. For a long time, Google seemed more bogeyman than real monster, an obvious power in search but not such a big deal when it came to actually selling to businesses and threatening the Microsoft channel. Google Apps has hardly made a dent in Microsoft Office's market share, and much of what Google has offered for the enterprise thus far has really come off to a lot of IT folks as cheap and simple but not quite useful enough.
However, products that are starting to change all that are trickling out. While we're still resisting being soaked by the hype surrounding Google Wave (in large part because the product doesn't yet exist), the don't-be-evil company's latest threat to Redmond, Google Apps Sync for Microsoft Outlook, is available and is, well, a real threat.
Basically, GAS for Outlook (OK, Google doesn't call it that, but we think the name is at least memorable), now a part of the $50-per-user-per-year Google Apps business suite, lets users get their e-mail in Outlook but cuts Exchange out of the process altogether. That is to say that the Outlook interface will be there for the sake of familiarity, but instead of running an e-mail back end on Exchange, companies will be able to run it in Google's hosted environment.
This model cuts to the heart of one of Microsoft's most powerful competitive arguments, the notion that most people are familiar with Microsoft stuff and don't want to learn to use something else. Well, for the end user, nothing changes with GAS for Outlook. But for the administrator, a lot of things change: Exchange in-house is (potentially) history, while Google takes over running e-mail in what is likely to be a cheaper, albeit probably less controllable, hosted environment.
Of course, the likely real victim here from Microsoft's (and partners') perspective is Exchange Online, the fledgling hosted-Exchange service that Microsoft and some of its channel members offer. Microsoft will either have to demonstrate that Exchange Online just works better than Google's hosted service (and all the other Microsoft stuff in the infrastructure), or it'll come down to a price war...and that latter scenario is not a good one for partners.
And then there's old-school in-house Exchange, which is still a major revenue driver in Redmond and in the channel. It has the advantage of being the incumbent in a lot of organizations, but it also has the disadvantage of being relatively expensive to operate and maintain. The questions that always come with a hosted model are, of course, still going to be present with GAS, with issues surrounding downtime, compliance and controllability (yes, it's a word -- spell check recognizes it) likely at the top of the list.
But if GAS turns out to be a workable and much less expensive alternative to in-house Exchange, it could make a serious dent in Microsoft's share in that market -- and in partners' revenues. And it could set up, should business actually commit en masse to moving to hosted e-mail, a battle royale between GAS and Exchange Online, in an arena in which Microsoft would be the underdog, not the overwhelming favorite.
Is Google evil? That's hard to say. Is it a threat to Microsoft? It is now...and we get the feeling that this is just the start.
How big of a threat do you consider Google's new sync application to be? How big of a deal is Exchange for you right now? Sound off at [email protected].
Posted by Lee Pender on 06/11/2009 at 1:22 PM2 comments
Microsoft got a little bump in market share from the launch of its obviously crooner-inspired search engine. (Seriously, would it be too much to ask to have one of those background pictures on the search page be of Mr. Crosby?)
Posted by Lee Pender on 06/10/2009 at 1:22 PM2 comments
Surely somebody must have seen the little red line under the name of Microsoft's new Dublin-based start-up spin-off, InishTech. Somebody go change that "n" to an "r" before the logos get sewn on the corporate dress shirts.
Posted by Lee Pender on 06/10/2009 at 1:22 PM2 comments
Well, we're not sure we can vouch for the a-OK part, but the release candidate of System Center Virtual Machine Manager R2 is available, anyway.
Posted by Lee Pender on 06/10/2009 at 1:22 PM0 comments
If the hype Microsoft generated for Vista was a 200-piece brass band playing John Philip Sousa marches with baton twirlers in tow and fireworks going off overhead, then Redmond's attitude toward Windows 7 is something closer to the mood music for this entry, Dave Brubeck's "Take Five" (performed here in 1972 with the requisite earth-tone background and big-bow-tie tuxedos of the era).
They way we remember it -- and it wasn't that long ago -- Microsoft built anticipation for Vista with all the subtlety of Gallagher (remember him?) wielding a sledgehammer. Bill Gates made an ill-fated appearance on "The Daily Show" (which is still hilarious), Microsoft had some sort of huge launch party in New York City, and the sucker trade press (ahem) wrote article after article on the operating system that would make us all forget XP. That was followed, of course, by months of Microsoft telling us how great Vista was, how it really was selling in huge numbers despite the fact that nobody you knew was using it and how it would go rocketing past XP in market share any minute now. (Well, that's what we remember, anyway, so some of that stuff must have happened.) Then, of course, there was the infamous "Vista capable" lawsuit, which produced tons of hilarious internal Microsoft e-mails for our reading pleasure.
So, everything considered, the whole Vista thing didn't go so well. We suspect that Microsoft has learned from that, though, because we're sensing a different approach thus far with the build-up to Windows 7. Microsoft seems to be playing it much cooler (hence the "Take Five" mood music) with this OS release.
First of all, Windows 7 is a relatively pedestrian name -- in fact, it's not much more than a code name gone public. Vista, on the other hand, seemed to suggest the precipice of all computing off of which we'd look and see the future of technology, as scary as that thought is now. Beyond that, while it's very clear that Microsoft wants us to buy -- and partners to sell -- Windows 7, we're not getting that in-your-face feeling from Redmond this time around.
Take Bill Veghte's speech about Windows 7 this week. We could almost see him coolly shrug, take a sip of his martini and sink into his leather armchair as he told the crowd at the UBS Global Technology and Services Conference that the new OS would likely create only a modest bump in PC sales. Microsoft? Modest? A new OS? Did these three things really appear in the same story?
They did, and we're not saying that Veghte is wrong. Unfortunately, he's probably right, especially in (all together now) this economy. But just the fact that a Windows bigwig at Microsoft tried to play down expectations for the launch of an OS tells us that Redmond is approaching Windows 7's introduction with a lot more realism, sophistication and maybe even humility than it showed with Vista's introduction.
And given that Microsoft needs to win back some hearts and minds of customers (and of partners) post-Vista, that's probably a very sound approach. Hey, we like John Philip Sousa, but there's a time for "Stars and Stripes Forever" and a time for "Take Five." And right now, we prefer Dave Brubeck's offering to JP Sousa's. Apparently, Microsoft feels the same way.
What's your take on Windows 7 marketing? Are you having to reassure your customers about Microsoft? Is there buzz about the new OS? Reveal all at [email protected].
Posted by Lee Pender on 06/10/2009 at 1:22 PM0 comments
Yeah, OK, it's not the most attention-grabbing headline ever, but your editor spent a considerable amount of time today poring over this blog entry about Microsoft's flat stock price and future strategy, as well as perusing the generally thought-provoking comments that follow the entry. We at RCPU are not quite as enamored with Apple as this fellow is, but a lot of what he says about Windows and Office reflects a viewpoint we're starting to come around to ourselves. Enjoy.
Posted by Lee Pender on 06/09/2009 at 1:22 PM0 comments
Ten fixes are on the way today, so don't be surprised if this update is a heavy one.
Posted by Lee Pender on 06/09/2009 at 1:22 PM0 comments
"Listen, don't really matter to me
Baby, you believe what you wanna believe"
--from "Refugee" by Tom Petty
You don't have to live like a refugee...but if you're a partner, you do have to pay attention to IT spending forecasts. They're a decent gauge of how much money is going to be in your bank account in the next few months. And, as with so many things in the industry, IT spending forecasts might as well be IT spinning forecasts, so full are they of differing angles and brave predictions. Let's try to go from best to worst with what we've seen lately.
One caveat: these forecasts are done by different firms, use different people in their surveys (although some respondents are bound to overlap) and aren't necessarily out to come up with the same types of numbers. Some focus on what we've seen so far in 2009, others on what the year as a whole will bring. So, this isn't necessarily an apples-to-apples-to-apples comparison. But it's an interesting exercise nonetheless, and all three of the reports we're looking at do deal with the broad topic of IT spending.
A couple of weeks ago, the folks at Robert Half Technology, an IT staffing specialist, managed to sound somewhat upbeat about IT spending, noting that CIOs aren't going to stop spending despite the fact that the rest of 2009 is likely to be tough. Here's a quote from the article linked above:
"'Although times are lean, many companies are finding that they can't afford to postpone IT investments that lead to increased security, efficiencies or revenues,' said Dave Willmer, executive director at Robert Half Technology, in a statement. 'Organizations also are trying to make sure they are prepared for growth when conditions improve, and enhancing their IT infrastructure is part of that process.'"
Hey, that doesn't sound so bad! Now, the folks at Robert Half aren't necessarily saying that IT spending will increase over the course of 2009, but they seem to be painting a mostly rosy -- or rosier than expected -- picture of this year's corporate IT budgets.
Forrester, however, puts a somewhat less optimistic spin on the situation, with the summary of Andrew Bartels' spending report sounding almost dire:
"The steep drop in economic growth in Q4 [2008] both caused and reflected a similar fall in tech purchases. As a result, we now expect US business and government purchases of IT goods and services to decrease by 3.1 percent in 2009, compared with the 1.6 percent increase we had previously projected for the year."
Ouch. That's not so rosy, although Bartels does say that spending will increase when the U.S. economy starts to rebound at the end of 2009. We'll see about that.
And then there's Gartner's Mark McDonald (who is not, as far as we know, a former Doobie Brother), who goes into great detail about just how bad things have been thus far in 2009. Spending declined by a weighted average of 4.7 percent in Q1, McDonald says, which sounds brutal and looks even more brutal in chart form, with a huge red bar sinking below the axis while happy gray bars precede it.
But McDonald says that it's unlikely that most CIOs will cut budgets any further for the duration of 2009, which is good news. The bad news for the channel? Less of the money that's being spent is actually making its way to partners, at least to those partners involved in consulting and the like:
"CIOs reported shifting more work to in-house resources more than reducing IT project investments. Few, only 9 percent, see increased use of outsourcing as a way to address the budget challenge."
Boo! The glimmer of hope in McDonald's report -- and it's barely a glimmer -- is that, and we quote, "CIOs expect the economy to recover between the first and third quarter of 2010." Uh, that's kind of a long time, especially when revenues at partner companies are already starting to dry up. Hopefully some of that money that's being hoarded in-house will make its way back into the channel in the next year or so.
We'd like to believe, too, that Forrester's forecast of a rebound at the end of 2009 will be more accurate than the prediction of a bounce some time in 2010. But, as Tom Petty sang at the outset of this entry, "You believe what you want to believe." The economy has to come back some time, though. If Tom were to offer his wisdom to us again, he might say that the waiting is the hardest part.
How's your 2009 looking, either from the IT spending perspective or from the partner revenue perspective? Sound off at [email protected].
Posted by Lee Pender on 06/09/2009 at 1:22 PM1 comments
It's been so long since we've run reader e-mails that we just can't help ourselves. You're getting a double dose this week! Let's pick up with Microsoft patenting technology to lock down the operating system. Joseph can kind of see where Microsoft is going with this:
"It is a rather interesting technology, actually, and I can see its uses, such as with Windows Unified Data Storage Server, where legally according to the license you can only install anti-virus, storage management and backup software. Of course, currently there is really nothing stopping you from installing whatever you want on your HP AIO Storage Server. Also, I can especially see it being useful for medical device vendors where they could be held responsible for an OS crash that causes someone to somehow die if the hospital IT department installs something it shouldn't."
Goodness, we hadn't thought of that, but that's why we ask for reader feedback. Death by Windows -- now that's grim. Talk about a blue screen...
Bryan is more on our wavelength on this issue:
"This can't be a serious question. [Well, sort of...but not really. --L.P.] No one should control the OS except the customer. That answer is so obvious that I'd worry about anyone who answered differently. Yes, a contracted outsourced IT support provider may actually deliver the control, but they effectively become part of the customer when they enter into the outsourcing agreement. They should be doing what the customer demands and requires, no more, no less.
"I would never let an ISV or vendor partner dictate what I can and cannot do with the workstations under my control."
Brian, we're right there with you. We figure most other folks in the industry and elsewhere are, too. Surely Microsoft understands that.
Finally, our e-mail of the week, maybe of the month. On the topic of Microsoft so graciously letting netbooks run more than three applications at a time in Windows 7, Kurt gives us -- and Microsoft -- something to think about:
"The article about Window 7 Starter Edition on netbooks being limited to only four concurrent applications got me thinking about the following: My BlackBerry Storm allows me to toggle between more than just four applications, LOL [that's the second 'LOL' we've had in an e-mail in this edition of RCPU, an unprecedented event --L.P.], and it only cost me $100 after a $50 rebate from VerizonWireless.com. Although the touch screen is only about the size of a 3"-by-5" note card, having the portability, all-day battery life and combination of a cell phone, GPS, 8GB flash drive, camera, video recorder, multimedia player, voice recorder and computer all in one device is a huge plus. I can do just about anything on my BlackBerry that I can do on Windows. In fact, if I could dock my BlackBerry as the CPU in a tablet-clamshell- type add-on device to achieve a full-size keyboard and LCD monitor, then why would I need Windows? [Let us just step in here: Why indeed, Kurt? We're not sure, either. --L.P.]
"If I were Microsoft, I would try to make Windows 7 on the netbook as functional as possible, rather than risk losing this popular new niche to a competitor such as BlackBerry. Kind of like what happened with Apple and the iPod. However, because of BlackBerry's unique heritage as a much leaner but robust business-aware operating system, perhaps it is a better fit as a netbook device OS."
Kurt, don't be too frightened by this, but our minds are running in the same channel here. Windows won't necessarily rule the technology world forever. The game is changing. We'll have to wait and see how or whether Microsoft changes with it. Thanks very much for that little vision of tomorrow's (actually today's) world.
Have anything to add? Add it at [email protected].
Posted by Lee Pender on 06/04/2009 at 1:22 PM0 comments
Back in the mists of time (weeks ago, when Swine Flu was in the news and Susan Boyle wasn't yet suffering from overexposure), we asked readers to send us "buy bonds" posters in honor of Microsoft's first-ever bond offering. To our great surprise, somebody actually did, and the contribution is magnificent. Check out Rae's handiwork:
Click on image for larger view. |
We also speculated as to what Microsoft might do with its bond money; specifically, we joined the chorus of pundits asking what might happen if Microsoft bought SAP. On that topic, we got a tremendous e-mail from Rich, with whom we'll be keeping in touch:
"I don't see it happening, but I can only imagine the fireworks that it would create. What would our boy in Redwood City do? Hey, maybe [Oracle CEO] Larry [Ellison] is already waiting in the wings with a pile of cash ready to suck up SAP when Microsoft decides against the deal. Just like the IBM/Sun deal. But wait, no, he'd have nothing to live for if he did. Hmm...He'd probably go for it anyway.
"You're right about the culture clash. I've worked for both Microsoft and SAP and their cultures are day and night (or should I say day und nacht?). The partner vs. direct-sales strategies would exacerbate an already bad situation that both companies wrestle with. As far as products, my guess is that Dynamics would ultimately fade into SAP's suite, and who knows when SAP's Business ByDesign SaaS will ever see the light of day. Walldorf has had heartburn over that since its inception.
"And Larry will be bristling. Oh, did I mention I worked for Oracle, too? Truth is, Larry's the only guy who has the stomach for such a deal -- largely because he doesn't care about the other culture or the fallout. Strangely enough, Oracle has done a very good job of integrating the likes of PeopleSoft, Siebel, Hyperion, BEA, etc. I was there when they happened and, frankly, we were all surprised at how smoothly they went down (no pun intended)."
Wow. Rich, you're in our Outlook contact list now. That's just some tremendous insight there. We have nothing to add except that the phrase "day und nacht" literally made your editor laugh out loud. Danke schön!
Also in the distant past, we did some complaining about Office 2010 arriving just as your editor is figuring out Office 2007. Peter, one of our better and more frequent contributors here at RCPU, felt pangs of sympathy:
"I never bothered to go with 2007. There was so much consternation about the place with the 'aghhhh ribbon' that I didn't bother. There was nothing in 2007 that I actually needed. As partners, we get all that stuff for free, but like Vista, most of it just sits on the DVD! I did give 2007 to my 15-year-old son and he seems to quite like it.
"I also bought my son a MacBook for school, and each day he tells me how it exceeds his expectations. Of course, he has all his Windows stuff on the Windows partition if he should want it, but he says he never needs to go there. He has Office 2008 on the Apple side and he says that's pretty good.
"As a Microsoft partner, it's a complete mystery to me why there are only 40 million Macs (and 40 million Linux) systems on the planet versus 1.25 billion Windows machines. My son and I often amuse ourselves by watching that series of Mac ads...unfortunately it's all true."
Oh, Peter, that last paragraph is trouble. We're going to leave it alone for the time being, lest this edition of the newsletter run into the tens of thousands of words. But we hear what you're saying, and we definitely hear you on Office 2007. It's a lot to learn for not a lot of reward, frankly.
Dave is a fellow kindred spirit:
"It has taken a while to get used to the new menu interface. I can't say I like it better, but time will tell. We all used the old interface for so long that it had become second nature. The only feature I really miss in Word 2007 in the HTML source viewer. I wish they would put that back into the product."
Dave, we wondered about that, too. Maybe it'll be back for Office 2010.
And Aaron got a chuckle out of your editor with this effort:
"Microsoft needs to give information about Access 2010. I can't find reliable information anywhere about this. I don't care about 'Access Web Access.' LOL -- what a horrible idea and name."
Aaron, to be perfectly honest, we don't know much about Access 2010. But Access Web Access -- yeah, that's comically bad.
Want to add to the e-mail pile? Throw one on at [email protected].
Posted by Lee Pender on 06/04/2009 at 1:22 PM0 comments
Boo! No, we're not booing Vista (anymore); we're trying to surprise you with the arrival of Windows 7, which is now due Oct. 22. That's just in time for Halloween, of course, which makes us wonder what Windows 7's costume will be.
Most likely, it'll be dressed as a knight in shining armor, out to avenge the good name of Microsoft after the Vista debacle. Or maybe it'll come in a lion's costume, ready to roar after Vista turned out to be a lamb (a generous characterization of the latter, we think -- we could have gone with something closer to rat). Whatever. We really don't have anything more to say about this except that we're curious to see how Windows 7 goes over. And we haven't even thought about our own Halloween costume yet. It's June, for heaven's sake.
How should Windows 7 dress for the Halloween ball? Be creative and send your thoughts to [email protected].
Posted by Lee Pender on 06/04/2009 at 1:22 PM4 comments
Microsoft has a competitor to Windows in the netbook market that's not called Linux. It's -- guess who? -- Google, with the Android operating system, which will soon run on some Acer netbooks and likely make them cheaper than Windows models.
This is happening just as Microsoft and netbook maker Asus have decided to launch an anti-Linux campaign for netbooks. Linux, though, might be the easier of the two opponents to defeat in the battle for netbook OS supremacy. Stay tuned...
Posted by Lee Pender on 06/03/2009 at 1:22 PM0 comments