I'm not generally a fan of analysts, or more specifically analyst firms. When vendors pay for research, one must suspect each and every finding. Are most legit? Sure. Is too much research seriously sketchy? Fo sho.
One outfit I really like is Directions on Microsoft. Powered by ex-Microsoft execs, Directions (no one calls it DoM...but perhaps they should) doesn't do Gartner-style prediction research. DoM is all about analysis -- bringing clarity to the complex ever-changing world of Microsoft.
Last week the group laid out its view of where Windows 8, both client and server, is going. Here are a few highlights:
Of course you probably know that the Windows 8 client has two dual personalities -- it will run on x86 and ARM low-power processors. And there are two distinctly different interfaces: a rich, old-style "classic" interface (more or less like we have with XP, Vista and Win 7) and a new tile-based look called "Metro" that looks more like a smartphone than a PC.
The goal is for Win 8 classic to run all Win 7-compatible apps. This means that IT will be largely interested in Win 8 on x86 machines where the migration (hopefully) will be relatively smooth.
Metro, which is core to ARM, is more disruptive. Older apps must be rewritten or ported, and there is a huge question over device drivers, which is problematic even when you stick with the same processor architecture.
Another item that will lead IT towards x86 and Win 8 classic is Hyper-V, expected to be bundled and only work with x86. And productivity workhorse Office isn't even guaranteed to run on ARM.
Windows Server 8 has been lost in all the client hype, but this is perhaps even more important to IT. Details are still a bit unclear (though Redmond magazine will have a full report in our November issue), but Microsoft is making one point of emphasis: Based on success with Windows Server 2008 Core, with no GUI, Microsoft is also pushing the stripped down version of Windows Server 8. DoM thinks the server OS might even beat the client to market, coming about next year of the year after.
Have you looked at early Win 8 client or server code? If so, talk to me at [email protected].
Posted by Doug Barney on 09/28/2011 at 1:18 PM1 comments
Pretty much all of us (unless we're on an iPad) run Flash to some extent. And that means we are all vulnerable.
Adobe, whether it is because its software is so ubiquitous or poorly engineered, has more patches than a Three Stooges car tire. And like Microsoft, it releases patches on a fixed schedule. And like Microsoft, it tries to be transparent about its issues.
Case in point: Last week a patch came out to block a zero-day Flash cross-scripting vulnerability -- one that left users of Flash Player 10 and earlier open to hackers taking over you machine to crash it or use for misdeeds.
One solution is the patch. The other is upgrading to the very latest version of Flash.
What software represents your biggest security concern? Tell us all at [email protected].
Posted by Doug Barney on 09/26/2011 at 1:18 PM1 comments
The busiest job at HP is updating the CEO bio page. Carly Fiorini ran HP 'til 1995. She was fired during a massive reorg and equally massive layoff of staff.
Mark Hurd took over and survived the scandal of the company spying on journalists and its own board. In this case, the buck didn't stop at the top, but underlings took the fall. Hurd got the boot for expense report improprieties (he didn't make enough to pay for his own, non-company expense?). Then Lee Apotheker stepped in.
In recent months there have been mixed signals over the future of HP's PC and tablet business -- I still don't know what the exact plan is. Lee clearly flubbed this and last week was replaced by former eBay CEO Meg Whitman.
Meg did a fine job at eBay (gosh knows she has enough of my money). But she did make the mistake of paying too much for Skype.
I actually have confidence in Whitman -- she is a true entrepreneur.
Not sure how big a coincidence this is but Fiorina ran for Senate in California and Meg went after the governor's office. Both lost.
Posted by Doug Barney on 09/26/2011 at 1:18 PM4 comments
Readers share their thoughts on Microsoft's smartphone line:
Having used a (company supplied) Blackberry for many years, I needed to find something to use when I retired. I chose Win Phone 7 for many reasons (Samsung Omnia 7 on Orange UK). I am very pleased with it, and have now used it in Middle East, Asia and various European countries -- without a single problem. Links well into my e-mail account on Offcie365. Looking forward to Mango.
Only issues I have found so far are: lack of Skype (coming), the need to 'dock it' with Zune to download podcasts and its inability to 'download contacts' over Bluetooth to my car's built-in car kit, which was no problem with my Blackberry.
Biggest problem I have seen (in the U.K., at least) is its lack of availability / visibility. I went into my local Car Phone Warehouse (U.K.-wide mobile phone shop) and the guy was very positive about Win Phone 7, but said I had to go to bigger stores to get them. In Manchester, I wandered into various stores (Orange, Vodafone, etc.) and in each store there were umpteen Androids, iPhones and Blackberries, plus numerous cheapies, and then perhaps one Win Phone 7.
Not sure how Microsoft (or more likely, the phone dealers) expect to sell any phones if they do not actively sell them (and only someone who actively asks for one can buy it). Even on their mail-order Web sites, usually there is an extra menu for iPhones, and Blackberries, but for Windows Phone 7 you need to crawl through the umpteen entries under 'smartphones' to try and find Windows Phone 7 devices.
A number of the guys who used to work for me swapped their iPhones for Win Phone 7 and ,without exception, they are all pleased with their decision.
I was in IFA in Berlin two weeks ago, and thought I could find Microsoft to look at Mango in more detail. After asking around, finally found them in the 'Windows Phone truck' in the garden -- about as easy to find as the phones in the stores.
-Roger
My girlfriend has an HTC with Win7 and I am impressed with the GUI -- easy to set up mail and the sounds, speed and general user experience were great. Microsoft needs to get this on more phones. Having to use Zune to update is a chore and it does take a while to update however it has yet to crash at all.
Not having to use iTunes for audio is more than enough reason to move from Apple to Microsoft.
-Moses
The problem with a lot of watchers is they assume what happens in the first three months reflects personal opinion of everyone. I, for example, was waiting and waiting for Windows Phone 7, and when I couldn't wait any longer, I got an Android phone. It didn't really fit my need that well, so I switched to an iPhone. Better, but still not great. Then three months later, the Windows 7 Phone finally released, but I can't even consider it without a heavy penalty for more than a year yet.
So yes, I do think a large percentage will consider it, and 44 percent doesn't sound too out of line. Of that, expect about 20 percent conversion so yes, it should be viable if not 'likeable.' What really drives this, though? Business purchases. Otherwise RIM would have died a long time ago. If Mango really is good (especially for business), don't be surprised if it hits closer to 90 percent conversion as businesses drop RIM like a bad habit for the Microsoft platform. That is a BIG IF though.
-Anonymous
Share your thoughts with the editors of this newsletter! Write to [email protected]. Letters printed in this newsletter may be edited for length and clarity, and will be credited by first name only (we do NOT print last names or e-mail addresses).
Posted by Doug Barney on 09/26/2011 at 1:18 PM1 comments
Windows Phone 7 may get a much-needed kick in the pants this week with the possible release of Mango, the code name for Windows Phone 7.5.
(Before I write about this more, I have to ask why on earth Windows Phone 7.5 needs a code name. Isn't the name Windows Phone 7.5 clear enough?)
The update, rumored to start shipping out by OEMs this week, switches between apps faster, multitasks and offers "multiple live tiles."
Posted by Doug Barney on 09/26/2011 at 1:18 PM1 comments
Microsoft has been relatively forthcoming about Windows 8. It even gave thousands of developers Samsung tablets loaded with the latest test release of the OS.
One area where details are scant concerns the ARM version. This is the hardware platform that promises to drive smaller form factors for Windows 8 devices, with power-miserly battery lives. Microsoft simply will not say to what extent these machines based on non-Intel-compatible chips will run older software. If the past is any indication, I'd say not very well.
Now that test code is out, and we have many Microsoft speeches to parse, we are getting a sense of this reality. It appears that older style, or what Microsoft calls "desktop apps" will indeed run, as long as they are recompiled.
Now 'recompiled' conjures visions of putting your code through some sort of sausage maker to shoot out hamburger on the other side. But as any old programming salt will tell you, it ain't that simple.
My guess? Apps with big market potential will indeed go through the recompiling, porting and semi-rewriting process. Most won't.
Is this a big deal? Nah. I view the ARM machines as more like an iPad, which doesn't run native Mac apps and was never designed to. That is the whole point. It is a new class of machine with a new class of software.
Do you like the Windows 8 ARM strategy, or are you too confused to decide? Help me out on this one at [email protected].
Posted by Doug Barney on 09/23/2011 at 1:18 PM2 comments
If you look at market share numbers, Windows Phone 7 is a bigger dud than Christine O'Donnell's new book "Troublemaker" (if you read it, share your thoughts with the crew at [email protected]).
The sub-10 percent market share numbers for Windows Phone 7 devices are the now. The future may (or may not) be brighter. A group called Connected Intelligence has research claiming that some 44 percent of current cell phoners are considering Windows Phone 7. Interestingly, one percent more -- or 45 percent -- don't even know that Windows Phone 7 exists.
I was recently burned by some bogus research on the relative intelligence of browser users, and these Connected Intelligence numbers seems high to me. I poked around a bit and haven't seen any red flags, but I would ask what does it mean to consider? I'm considering buying an 80-foot yacht, but in reality will probably buy an off-season ticket on the Nantucket Ferry instead.
What are your thoughts on Windows Phone 7? Use your smartphone, laptop, thin client or whatever and e-mail me at [email protected].
Posted by Doug Barney on 09/23/2011 at 1:18 PM7 comments
A co-worker of mine, Dana Vedder (I haven't asked if she's related to Eddie), tipped me off to an analysis of Bing financials from CNNMoney.
Perhaps overlooked in a recent financial analysts meeting is the fact that Microsoft loses a cool (actually an uncool) billion dollars a quarter on Bing. The money is going into making the search engine not just good enough to counter Google, but hopefully better enough to beat it.
There is some good news: Bing nearly doubled its market share in recent years from 8.4 percent to nearly 15 percent. Impressive? Well, that all just came from Yahoo replacing its own engine with Bing. Can you say automatic increase?
So what is Microsoft's plan? Keep shelling out those billions and build something very different from Google -- something far more context sensitive and something that can use natural language queries instead of short, correctly spelled words and phrases.
My son David looked into Bing, and wrote a cover story for Redmond magazine a couple years ago called "Bing, Bang Boom." He talked to about a dozen of you faithful Redmond Report readers who thought, while not perfect, Bing was pretty dang good.
Also check out Microsoft analyst Mary Jo Foley's column from last month where she gives her insight on why Microsoft will continue to stick with Bing.
What do you want from search and do you really care who wins this war? Share at [email protected].
Posted by Doug Barney on 09/23/2011 at 1:18 PM4 comments
A hole in the Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) protocol could let a hacker commandeer your computer through rogue Web sites.
The flaw, found by two researchers, will be demonstrated this Friday at a security conference in South America. The researchers have proof-of-concept code called Browser Exploit Against SSL/TTS --known by the much cooler name BEAST -- that exploits the flaw.
Hackers could, once they figure out how it works, steal authentication tokens and then launch an array of attacks including phishing.
Some flaws are due to new software or upgrades. In this case, the flaw has been around since the very dawn of SSL time.
Posted by Doug Barney on 09/21/2011 at 1:18 PM0 comments
Remember Richard Clarke, the head of cyber security under President George W. Bush who resigned due to feelings that the administration didn't take terrorism seriously?
Now Clarke is beating the drum, claiming the federal government isn't taking the threat of cyber attack seriously.
This isn't just conjecture. Clarke points to recent break-ins to prove his point, arguing that these criminals and sometime foreign government backed hackers are getting smarter and have better and better tools at their disposal.
Already the U.S. government and key corporations have had reams of confidential data stolen by hackers.
We all know that, but unless we move to a new generation of tools and processes, it will only get worse. Unfortunately Clarke believes most security vendors are mired in the past, and few are looking at revolutionary new ways to protect our networks.
Are we winning or losing the war against hackers? You tell me at [email protected].
Posted by Doug Barney on 09/21/2011 at 1:18 PM0 comments
Recently I told you about a Dutch digital cert player that allowed itself to be hacked, resulting in a flood of bogus, useless certs.
Well, Microsoft remedied the problem with a DLL update -- at least it thought it had. Turns out the fix didn't block all the bogus certs, so a fix for the fix has now shipped.
The problem really just impacts older software such as XP and Windows Server 2003. Anything later than that should be fine, but I'd check just in case.
Posted by Doug Barney on 09/21/2011 at 1:18 PM1 comments
Microsoft has said it is "all in" the cloud, and that means being all in with Azure. At last week's Build show, Microsoft talked in a lot of generalities, but also laid out a fair share of specifics.
On the general side, company server and tools president Satya Nadella talked about the need for "a rich portfolio of storage across blobs, tables and full relational capabilities to handle the complexity of data [with] Windows Azure."
I've been reading the views of many cloud gurus and it seems that storage is perhaps the biggest impediment to cloud success. Let's hope the software and hardware together can build inexpensive, fast and reliable storage solutions for the cloud.
Microsoft also has a model for selling applications or places to store your data. Azure Marketplace already has hundreds of apps and services, and will soon be available in 25 more countries.
Microsoft may want to dominate the cloud, but it also recognizes it must play nice if it is to have any chance at all. That means interfacing with services such as Yahoo, Facebook and (gasp) even Google. Windows 8 will play a role as it is designed to access these services all with a single sign-on.
And Windows 8 developers can get started with the new Windows Azure Toolkit for Windows 8. Yup, that's that actual name, with Windows repeated twice!
There's also a more generalized kit, the Windows Azure SDK 1.5 with an enhanced certificate upload process.
Have you played with Azure? Share thoughts and experiences at [email protected].
Posted by Doug Barney on 09/19/2011 at 1:18 PM0 comments