Doug is out today, so filling in for him is Michael Domingo, editor of MCPmag.com and the voice behind Redmond Radio.
Gartner just gobbled up AMR Research for $64 million last month, then scooped up Burton Group for $56 million this week.
Gartner's FAQ explains that their data has "strategic" implications, while Burton's is "practical." Spin is one thing and perception is another, so my questions to you is: Whose data is more useful? How much, if any, do you rely on analyst firms on your own IT planning and spending decisions? Send your analyses to [email protected].
Posted by Michael Domingo on 01/08/2010 at 1:17 PM3 comments
IDC recently predicted that Windows 7 will be the last of the desktop client OSes. But readers aren't so sure:
Are they kidding? IDC is predicting that Microsoft is giving up the home user and gamer market? Do they own stock in Apple? Certainly, businesses will be examining the feasibility of thin clients for desktops -- it just makes business sense to not provide every executive, clerk and janitor with a standardized, whiz-bang, costly, state-of the-art PC. Laptop users, not so much! They'll need the full-blown fat capabilities so they can work in a vacuum (or cheap hotel room).
-Alan
My opinion is that some shops will move to thin clients as soon as they think they can. Those same shops now lock down every workstation so the user can't do anything at all beyond work on authorized files stored on the corporate network, and they already store all their corporate data on servers they own and fully control. Without their networks, they are already shut down, so thin clients make sense. Handing all their data to Google does not.
If Windows 7 hangs on as long as XP (about six years), that takes us to about 2015. I would be surprised if by then, the rest of us are so confident in Google and its competitors that we are willing to trust every important piece of data we own to them. Networks are vulnerable to minor disasters (a carelessly operated backhoe, for example), major disasters and human malice (anything from terrorist acts to abrupt changes in terms of service; check the mail you've gotten from your bank in the last couple of months for examples). I am not convinced that individual users and smaller companies will be confident enough in the cloud to put that much trust in it by 2015. I may be wrong, of course.
-Anonymous
While I don't see Windows 7 as the end of the line for Microsoft's Windows OS, I do think that the times, they are a-changin'. The one flaw with always-connected computing is that it's not always on. With the problems that people have getting good cell phone service, the notion that you can have all your data and apps dispersed in places other than your local PC looks foolish.
What we need to see is a synchronized local/remote hybrid. When connectivity is present and bandwidth permits, then the data can be synced between local and remote storage. When connectivity is absent or of sub-standard quality, you process locally. This notion isn't really rocket science, you know. Until the data networks that permeate our nation get considerably more robust and reliable, and bandwidth gets immensely more abundant and affordable, the notion of a totally cloud-based computing paradigm is so much pie in the sky (to mangle a metaphor). And we haven't even talked about the security aspects of this yet.
-Dennis
The end of fat clients and the move to the cloud all depend on an infrastructure that can support what these technologies represent. And what's a better example of that infrastructure challenge today than the ongoing "There's a map for that" battle between Verizon and AT&T? Quite frankly, from what I read, even Verizon would have a difficult time attaining the level of service that AT&T has achieved, even though the level of service at AT&T falls somewhat short. Make everything essentially a thin client and put it on the 'Net or in the cloud, and just who would be the infrastructure provider that could stand up to that challenge? I don't think the two of them combined could muster up the dollars to deal with this one in the seven years that IDC seems to think this will happen.
And what about the rest of us? I'm referring to the 30 percent (maybe more, maybe less) of the population that don't live in major cities and face virtually no investment on the part of providers because there isn't enough profit where we live. A lot of us in the trenches live in localities with a single ISP that provides DSL at "blazing speeds" of 384KB to 1.5MB on an intermittent and geographically spotty basis (actually, they call this "high speed"). I can't even imagine trying to convince one of my clients at this point to consider any kind of thin client cloud computing. Can IDC and all the other cloud pundits help me sell this technological nightmare to more of my customers? I think not. Fat clients will live for many more years than the folks at IDC think. And if Microsoft doesn't provide that client, someone else will.
-Michael
I think you're right about the premature obituaries on fat clients, but I think that your reasoning only touches on part of the issue. I feel that there are at least two other related issues that need to be addressed. One, not everyone has unlimited Internet access, not by a long shot. Even though AT&T would like the FCC to believe otherwise, there are large numbers of people who do not have unlimited broadband access because the phone and cable companies are not willing to run the wires out to the rural areas of the USA. For some of us, the only games in town are dial-up and cellular modems with their 5GB/month caps before you are charged overage fees.
And two, security. There are some things that people just do not want on someone else's computers. There are things that are just too personal to have floating around in the cloud. There are liability issues with things like medical records or student grades. There are privacy issues.
-Glyn
You are right, and all the clowns saying we will all have dumb devices and store and access everything we need in the cloud have their heads in a controlled-substance cloud. I have worked in the security industry and with the NSA and I will NEVER trust the cloud with any of my data or for any of my apps.
-Paul
IDC is dead wrong. The proponents of the thin client model have been predicting the demise of local processing almost as long as it has been around. Thin clients have come a long way but there are still things that you cannot do with them. Today's thin clients face pricing pressure from netbooks and from entry-level laptops that make them a poor choice for most users and in most settings. Lots of baseline services can be delivered to a thin client but these are largely in settings with a few dedicated application needs. Basic personal productivity? Browsing? Sure! But what about gaming? Real-time audio and video streaming?
Demand for bandwidth continues to grow exponentially. If for no other reason, this means that today's thin client will become crippled and obsolete long before today's entry-level PC -- which, feature-for-feature, costs perhaps $100 to $200 more to purchase than its entry-level PC brethren and can do a great deal more than that thin client. Can a netbook be a great thin client? You bet! But it can also be a really good full-function computer when you need one and insufficient bandwidth is not available.
-Marc
I think you're right -- with the lapses in security causing data to be hacked or stolen, users are more likely to hold their data close to their chests.
This may well be the time for the OS-on-a-stick to come into its own. After all, the desktop, laptop, tablet and mobile devices are just interfaces that we use depending on our requirements at a particular time. Let's start pushing for the separation of the OS, applications and our personal data files from the hardware. From a practical perspective, perhaps the mobile device should be the core, since this is the interface most people carry everywhere, with seamless links to other hardware as necessary.
-Ian
Don't forget to share your synchronization solution of choice! Here are John's:
I use Outlook Connector sharing Outlook info between five machines (three desktops, two laptops with XP Pro, Vista Ultimate and Windows 7 Ultimate). I would give it a B+ to A-. I had a major data loss during a mandatory update and MS could not/would not support a restore/fix. MS needs some user tools for restoring .OST files. Very strange for such a strategic application. Basically, no direct support for this application. The Outlook support people are not well-versed.
I use Live Sync to keep important files synchronized between these five machines. So far, I would give this an A. Haven't had any problems and synchronization is very rapid. Would like to see more than the current 5GB storage limit. MS is confusing regarding this product, SkyDrive and Mesh. I also use OneNote (heavily utilized for many daily tasks) across these machines on my local network and find the synchronization almost magical. Never have had a problem over several years and the information is always in sync. If I were MS, I would put this team on any major sharing/synchronization efforts.
-John
Tell us what you think! Leave a comment below or send an e-mail to [email protected].
Posted by Doug Barney on 01/08/2010 at 1:17 PM0 comments
Readers aren't done raking Google and its CEO Eric Schmidt over the coals for some comments he made about Internet privacy:
I always remind my clients that ANY information they put on the Internet automatically is geographically under new ownership. It is no longer owned by the originator, but is instead owned by whoever has it on their server. Once it's on someone else's server, it is fair game for any hacker that can get to it. MySpace, Facebook, etc. are ALL traps for your crap. Don't use them if you want your privacy.
So while Schmidt is obviously inept at interpersonal conversation, he is almost right. But he's STILL a boob.
-Dale
Like most people who become insanely wealthy without learning how to change a diaper, Schmidt obviously needs to read privacy literature from established researchers in the 1960s before opening that massively influential yap. The main idea: the right to be left alone.
You mentioned Google taking snapshots of our kids in the yard -- how about Obama telling the census bureau to GPS everyone's doorstep with their data! Google Voice provides a transcript on every phone call, even if you don't want it. Google Mail provides advertising based on all documents (purportedly deleted or not). Google Docs allow "them" to see what you are working on, how long, when and from where. Google even "allows" one to install a nice search tool for my own private information (didn't realize I collected that much crap that I couldn't find it without Google).
-Derek
I see bits and pieces of Google invading my privacy by "indexing" what I buy online, what searches I do -- basically keeping track of me in some huge database (for what purposes, I'll never know). I checked Wiki and found numerous other sites and blogs where people are pointing at Google bots "crawling" the Web, indexing blogs and even Wikipedia stuff. It makes the hair on my back stand up! I even found an article saying that the CIA is using Google to spy on people!
For what it's worth, I'm using Bing now (screw Google). I reboot often, clear my history, use third-party privacy tools to clean the index.dat files, and always worry about who's looking over my shoulder and what they are trying to steal. My credit card number, my account information, my serials or product registrations -- who knows? And why does the government allow Google to monopolize the search engine business and get away with it, without someone like Eliot Spitzer ("the untouchable") filing a monopoly federal lawsuit for invasion of privacy?
-Anonymous
Here are a few more of your thoughts on Microsoft and the case of the stolen Plurk code:
No, you're not too soft on Microsoft, not this time. Yes, they were caught stealing code (or more correctly, some employees were) but they didn't try to squirm out. I think that even "evil empires" need to be cut a break every once in a while.
What I like seeing in general is a softening by Microsoft in many of these cases. They seem to have truly realized that there are valid alternatives that end users are starting to consider using.
-Richard
You wrote, "The Stacker lawsuit is a brilliant example where Microsoft used code from a hard drive compression it rather forcibly licensed from a third party." Really? That's an old bag of worms.
According to Wikipedia, "Stac, in an effort led by attorney Morgan Chu, sued Microsoft for infringement of two of its data compression patents, and won; in 1994, a California jury ruled the infringement by Microsoft was not willful."
-Anonymous
More letters coming on Friday. Meanwhile, tell us what you think by leaving a comment below or sending an e-mail to [email protected].
Posted by Doug Barney on 01/06/2010 at 1:17 PM0 comments
You might scoff to learn that Microsoft is helping fight global warming, and so would I, had I not written the article "Can Microsoft Save the World?" focusing on the company's efforts to eliminate disease, feed the world and fight population growth.
At the recent global warming summit in Copenhagen, Microsoft explained how it can reduce greenhouse gases, including its support of datacenter efficiency (largely through virtualization), video and Web conferencing, and cloud computing. Not just that, but the company talked about its work with global warming researchers mostly through database and data warehouse support.
Posted by Doug Barney on 01/06/2010 at 1:17 PM9 comments
Nathan Myhrvold is a major-league brain. Decades ago, Microsoft bought Myhrvold's company Dynamical Systems not just for its multi-tasking technology, but more for the pure brainpower of Nathan and his brother Cameron. Nathan eventually founded Microsoft Research, became chief technology officer at Microsoft, and then left Microsoft a decade ago to pursue private hobbies and investments.
All this is to give credibility to Myhrvold's idea to fight global warming. Under the plan, balloons will lift into the stratosphere a huge hose through which sulfur is pumped -- sulfur that blocks the sun and lowers temperatures. And you could pump more or less sulfur depending on temperature trends.
Unlike the trillions involved in worldwide cooling efforts, Myhvrold's scheme only costs a quarter of a billion dollars. Bill Gates could probably nab that with a few swipes of his ATM card.
Posted by Doug Barney on 01/06/2010 at 1:17 PM13 comments
Google and Apple, Facebook and Twitter are all the rage, right? Not according to marketing firm Zeta Interactive, which tracked Web posts and found more items about Microsoft than any other company. Google came in second, Amazon third and Apple fourth.
Posts were also overwhelmingly positive, with 83 percent being nice and 17 percent negative. In fact, the Microsoft comments were 1 percent more positive than Google posts, and far more positive than those about Apple (75 percent).
Posted by Doug Barney on 01/06/2010 at 1:17 PM0 comments
Last year, a court ruled that Microsoft Word violated a Canadian company's patent and must be pulled from the market. Microsoft appealed the decision and, as a result, got a temporary stay of execution.
Right before Christmas, Microsoft lost its appeal, and not only has to pay some $290 million in damages to i4i, but has to stop selling Word by Jan. 11 unless Microsoft can somehow rejigger the software so it no longer violates i4i patents relating to opening .XML files.
Microsoft claims the patent relates to a "little used feature" that can be easily removed. I guess we'll find out in a week.
Posted by Doug Barney on 01/04/2010 at 1:17 PM3 comments
Microsoft was hoping to welcome in the spring with a March 22 release of both Visual Studio 2010 and .NET Framework 4. Instead, the IDE will ship in warmer weather; it's been delayed by a "few weeks" due to some issues with performance and use of virtual memory.
Developers are a prickly bunch, and Microsoft is battling Java, Eclipse and a wealth of other development tools and architectures. Given that, it pays to get Visual Studio 2010 right.
The cool thing about this is just how honest and open Microsoft is about the state of the product, what it's doing and when it'll be done. I'm hearing the weather in April should be just right for a VS 2010 launch.
Posted by Doug Barney on 01/04/2010 at 1:17 PM2 comments
I saw a special in CNBC about Google. A few scenes had Googlers all sitting around a conference room to discuss new projects. What was in front of them? A good old-fashioned pencil and pad of paper? Nope -- state-of-the-art laptop computers. Hey, isn't Google all about the cloud? Isn't its Web-only software the death knell for Microsoft? Shouldn't Googlers be using a mobile phone or some fancy thin client?
Then there's Steve Jobs, sitting on top of an ever-rising stock price. Everything Jobs does requires local storage and processing, from the Mac to the iPod to the iPhone and even the upcoming tablet.
Despite all this, know-it-all pundits continue to write obits to intelligent clients. Latest case in point? IDC now predicts that Windows 7 will be the last old-style desktop client OS from Microsoft.
I think IDC is dead wrong. Microsoft Research has some cool operating systems in development that are flexible and secure. IDC also fails to understand the fundamentals of computer hardware. Everything is getting faster and cheaper. Flash storage, many core processors and insane amounts of RAM in a tiny space? What good is all this if the intelligence is all in the network? Why waste all this potential?
What's your prediction? Is IDC right and am I dead wrong? Shoot your thoughts to [email protected].
Posted by Doug Barney on 01/04/2010 at 1:17 PM11 comments
Most of us have several machines, and most of us are pretty mobile. So how do you keep a common set of files accessible from different PCs and locations? Are your files in the cloud or on a server? Do you use remote-control software and have one PC as the master? Any cool third-party apps help you out in this regard?
I'm looking to explore the best options in an upcoming feature story for Redmond. Share your solution with the world be writing me at [email protected].
Posted by Doug Barney on 01/04/2010 at 1:17 PM22 comments
This is the last Redmond Report newsletter until the new year. I wanted to take a few sentences to thank the tens of thousands of Redmond Report readers. I've been writing this newsletter for half a decade, and to be honest, I could easily have someone else do it. It's a lot of work and I have plenty of other important things to do. But I hang onto this newsletter like Bret Favre hangs onto his NFL career.
I write this newsletter because of the feedback I get from all of you. I'm an expert in IT because you're all experts and teach me every day. If I want to know if a topic is hot, I just ask you. And nearly all my feature stories are written based on what you have to say.
Your letters and comments challenge me, teach me and make me laugh. And if I say something stupid, you let me know in no uncertain terms. And that's what I need the most.
So happy holidays, thanks for all your help, and talk to you next year!
Suggestions for making this newsletter better are welcome at [email protected]. Oh, and I'm still looking for more Office 2010 users, so shoot me mail at [email protected] if you want to talk about it.
Posted by Doug Barney on 12/18/2009 at 1:17 PM1 comments
I wasn't aware that Office files were magnets for malware, but apparently the problem is big enough for Microsoft to build new protections into Office 2010.
Office 2010 will examine each file from an external source to see if it can be trusted. Sketchy files are automatically sandboxed so they can't do any damage. The user has to purposely retrieve the file from the sandbox in order to work with it. This sounds like a hassle, but a network infiltrated by malware is far worse.
Posted by Doug Barney on 12/18/2009 at 1:17 PM1 comments